Roughly 6 in 10 voters deeply disapprove of US President Donald Trump's presidency, according to an AP survey released Tuesday. About 4 in 10 say the economy is the most important issue while 3 in 10 say the state of US democracy is of primary concern – well above the number that rated crime or immigration as most important.   

Issued on: 04/11/2026 - 00:46Modified: 04/11/2026 - 00:51

A resident fills out a ballot at Chesterfield Central School during the midterm elections on November 3, 2026. © Kristopher Radder/The Brattleboro Reformer via AP

Tuesday's midterms may turn out to be a referendum on US President Donald Trump's performance over the last two years.

History, polling and early voting numbers suggest it could be a difficult night for Trump's Republican Party, though the political map – not to mention a fresh round of GOP gerrymandering – could limit Democratic gains. 

Voters are in the mood for change, according to the AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters say they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today. Most appear to blame the Trump administration for high costs, with about 6 in 10 saying higher prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control”.   

About 4 in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while 3 in 10 say the most important issue is democracy, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, healthcare and immigration.

Additionally, about 70% of voters want Congress to exercise more checks and balances on his presidency. 

Democrats are looking to win majorities in both the House and the Senate that would allow them to curb Trump's power after he's faced little pushback from compliant Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress.

Several key governors’ offices also are up for grabs. 

More than 59 million Americans already had voted before Tuesday, but many more ballots will be cast on Election Day, and government watchdog groups worry that Trump and his loyalists could interfere with the voting process.

Fearing a worst-case scenario, Democrats and nonpartisan watchdogs have trained tens of thousands of volunteers to monitor polling places. 

Midterms tend to punish the president  

The Republican president is also trying to defy history: In almost every modern midterm election, the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress. 

Democrats certainly hope that's the case this year. The party is optimistic, given Trump's dismal approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran and the surging price of gas and other daily necessities. 

Trump is betting that his base of white working-class voters, which fuelled his presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, can save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers.

Ahead of Election Day, however, there were signs that Democrats were more fired up to vote against him and his party. Specifically, the Hispanic and Black voters and younger people who swung toward Trump two years ago may now rebuke him.

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Cover image: Truth or Fake © France 24 07:59

But whether Democrats can win back both chambers of Congress remains an open question.

Since World War II, the House and Senate have both flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006.

The common thread when it does happen is an electorate clamouring for change or broad frustration with the sitting president.

This year has both, and Democrats are trying to capitalise on the opportunity. 

Early races to watch

Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a majority in the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a slim margin of 220-215.

It's unclear how big of a swing there could be, however. Democrats are targeting more than 60 districts, including many where Trump won by double digits. But between redistricting and the deep partisan divide between metropolitan and rural America, there simply aren't as many competitive races as there were in some previous years when the House flipped, including 2018, when Democrats netted 40 more seats. 

Early tells could be Pennsylvania's 1st District, where Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is trying to hold his suburban Philadelphia seat; Florida's redrawn 22nd and 25th Districts, both of which were supposed to be Republican pickups after redistricting this spring; Virginia's 2nd District rematch between Republican Representative Jen Kiggans and Democratic former representative Elaine Luria; and Virginia's 1st District, where Democrat Shannon Taylor, a local prosecutor, is challenging Republican Representative Rob Wittman. 

The Senate, meanwhile, is up for grabs. Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage. To net the four seats that Democrats need to take control, they must win states that Trump won. Among their targets: Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska.

Early East Coast results could offer clues. Democrat Roy Cooper is favoured to flip an open North Carolina seat, and Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is widely expected to win reelection in Georgia.

If one or both of those outcomes don't happen, or if the margins are razor-thin, it could forecast a stronger-than-expected Republican performance elsewhere. 

'War Room'

The world is also watching to see whether the president leverages the vast resources of the federal government to interfere with the election. Based on recent rhetoric, legal action and his yearslong record of promoting baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in elections he loses, there is reason to take the threat seriously.

In recent days, the Trump administration hinted at federal intervention in Alaska after a judge rejected his Justice Department's lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Senate race if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses. Trump called the situation "voter fraud at the highest level”.

The administration also tried and failed to block California from counting 20,000 ballots from people the federal government has identified as “likely” noncitizens. 

Trump’s Department of Justice is sending about 1,000 department staff to observe voting and ensure federal laws are being followed. Election observers are more concerned that Trump may dispatch federal immigration agents or the National Guard to intimidate voters in large Democratic precincts. 

The Trump administration says it has no current plans to do so.

Still, a vast election protection effort will be on display this week featuring hundreds of Democratic groups and government watchdogs. 

Democratic party leaders, lawmakers and others spent weeks gaming out more than 150 scenarios of possible federal interference in a "War Room" ahead of the midterms, focusing on countering administration moves in the days after the vote. 

While Trump's standing has cratered in 2026, the Democratic brand is also beleaguered. That will leave the party's major factions – the progressive left flank and the liberal-to-moderate establishment – parsing the outcomes to claim any advantage in Democrats' tug-of-war over party identity. 

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is the highest-profile progressive candidate, and the movement would have a feather in its cap should he defeat Republican Mike Rogers to keep the seat in Democratic hands. It could be an uphill battle for an unabashed progressive like El-Sayed to carry a perennial battleground state that helped elect Trump – twice. 

On the other hand, progressives could lose leverage within the party if their candidates underperform. Senate losses in Michigan and Minnesota – where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is defending a Democratic-held open seat against Republican Michele Tafoya – could cost Democrats control of the Senate and lead to finger-pointing. 

Democrats of all ideological stripes could win, piling up Senate, House and gubernatorial victories, a scenario that would do little to resolve the tussle over party identity and all but guarantee a wide-open presidential nomination fight. 

Trump set off a tempest of tit-for-tat moves last year when he pushed Texas, the most populous Republican-run state, to redraw congressional boundaries. California Governor Gavin Newsom answered by persuading his state's voters to respond in kind, putting redistricting to a public referendum. Other Democratic and Republican states followed.

In a key reversal for voting rights advocates, the US Supreme Court gutted part of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, allowing several Southern states to redraw districts that had been majority or near-majority Black. 

On paper, the results of these moves overall suggest a net shift of nine seats to Republicans. But the gerrymandering also meant spreading conservative supporters across more districts. In Florida and Texas, the Republican plan counted on getting help from Latinos and other nonwhite voters who backed Trump in 2024 – and that may not happen this time around.