Brazil plans to refine about 10% more crude oil by 2036, but its own planner says it will still import more diesel. Diesel demand is simply growing faster than new refinery units.
Brazil’s government energy planner expects refining capacity to grow about 10% by 2036, yet the country will still import more diesel. The finding sits in a refining chapter of the draft ten-year energy plan, dated 3 November.
EPE, the state energy-planning company, wrote the chapter for the Mines and Energy Ministry. The ministry opened the full draft for public comment on 8 October, and comment closes on Friday, 6 November.
What the Plan Projects for Refining
Refining capacity rises from 2.29 million barrels a day in 2026 to 2.53 million in 2036, a gain of 10%. The number of working refineries goes from 16 to 19.
Much of the new capacity comes from projects of Petrobras, the state-run oil company, taken from its business plan. The biggest is a second line at the RNEST refinery in Ipojuca, Pernambuco, adding 130,000 barrels a day from June 2027.
Diesel-cleaning units are planned at RNEST, the Boaventura complex in Itaboraí and the Repar and Refap refineries. EPE gives start dates from 2029 to 2032.
Another aerial view of the Abreu e Lima (RNEST) refinery in Ipojuca, Pernambuco, with storage tanks and process units. A file photo: it does not show any project in the energy plan or any event of 3 November. Photo: Lula Oficial / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)Why Diesel Imports Still Grow
Diesel demand is projected to rise 19% between 2026 and 2036, from 173,000 to 206,000 cubic metres a day. Domestic diesel output grows only 13%, to about 155,000 cubic metres a day.
Net diesel imports therefore reach 51,000 cubic metres a day in 2036, about a quarter of demand. That is some 320,000 barrels a day and 39% above the 2026 estimate of 37,000 cubic metres.
It is also 27% above the 2025 record of 40,000 cubic metres a day. EPE says output peaks at 161,000 in 2031, then slips as refiners move from S500 to cleaner S10 diesel.
Oil Products and Crude Overall
Across all oil products, net imports reach 37,000 cubic metres a day in 2036, below the record of 79,000 set in 2017. Their share of domestic demand falls from above 15% in the past decade to 8%.
Brazil stays a net exporter of crude, with output expected near 4.9 million barrels a day in 2036. The planning studies, made from March to June 2026, assume a Brent price near US$80 a barrel.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil will remain a buyer on the world diesel market, so its trucking and farm costs track prices US truckers also face. Investors in Petrobras, whose shares trade in New York, will watch whether the refinery dates hold.
Brazil’s government is also paying a diesel subsidy, as our report on the aid renewal explains. A separate analysis shows how global refining margins reach Brazilian pumps.
More is on the Brazil hub, with guides to who runs the economy and who holds power. The refining hub city is covered on the Rio de Janeiro page.
What Is Not Known
The plan is a draft, and the numbers may change after public comment. No date for the final version has been published.
The project dates come from EPE’s list of Petrobras plans and were not checked against a Petrobras filing. The chapter gives no cost for the refinery projects.
The plan is a ten-year projection, not a forecast for any single year. Actual imports will depend on prices, freight costs and how refineries run.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Brazil import more diesel by 2036?
Yes, net diesel imports are projected at 51,000 cubic metres a day in 2036, about 320,000 barrels. That is roughly 25% of demand.
How much will Brazil expand its refining?
Capacity is projected to grow about 10%, from 2.29 million barrels a day in 2026 to 2.53 million in 2036. The number of refineries rises from 16 to 19.
Why does diesel need imports if refining grows?
Diesel demand is projected to grow 19% while domestic diesel output grows only 13%. New units cannot close the gap.
Who published the projections?
EPE, Brazil’s state energy-planning company, wrote them for the Mines and Energy Ministry. They sit in a draft plan open for public comment until 6 November.
Is Brazil still an oil exporter?
Yes, the plan keeps Brazil a net crude exporter, with output near 4.9 million barrels a day in 2036. It still imports diesel.
Sources: EPE, Ten-Year Energy Plan 2036, Refining and Supply Infrastructure chapter, version of 3 November 2026; EPE, Ten-Year Energy Plan 2036 page (public consultation 8 October to 6 November 2026); Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy. Barrel conversions use 6.29 barrels per cubic metre.