The past week thrilled liberals and leftists across the world as elections in three polarized countries stemmed the march of the far-right in Latin America, demonstrated student power in Europe, and humbled Benjamin Netanyahu.
These polls have been hard fought, but the post-election transitions will be doubly harder.
- Crying fraud but also facing corruption charges back home, Flavio Bolsonaro, Brazil’s defeated presidential candidate, has fled to the US into the welcoming arms of his patron, US President Donald Trump. Bolsonaro can stay in America for as long as he wants, Trump said. His father, Jair, a former president, is in jail in Brazil.
- Running on an anti-corruption wave, Serbia’s student protest movement managed to unseat longtime leader Aleksandar Vucic in an election, but now comes the hard part of governing. For starters, the student leaders have called for the resignation of top public officials and investigations into alleged corruption under Vucic.
- In Israel, the far-right continues to dominate, but did not come out solidly for Netanyahu, whose party lost the majority in parliament. Without any bloc enjoying majority numbers, however, he will likely serve as caretaker prime minister. How could Israel break an election deadlock? Here’s an explainer.
And so we turn to the next logical question: what will America show the rest of the world this week?
The US midterm elections are happening on November 3, and the results will determine control of Congress as Trump enters the last two years of his term. Here are things to know.
If you’re a liberal and listened to pollster Nate Silver’s interview with Ezra Klein (as I did), you’d be expecting a “momentous” turnaround — a more than 70% chance for Democrats in the Senate — that could flip Congress against Trump. If the results reflect what he’s seeing in his polling, Silver said these would effectively end the Trump era.
The Economist has more conservative numbers. While conceding that the “auguries are good for Democrats,” it’s putting the probability of the US Senate going to the Democrats at just 54%. But the White House is already crafting a path to govern without Congress in case Democrats win, according to a Reuters report.
- These are the races that will decide control of the US Senate, and the key seats that could shape the next House.
- The campaign period has been reminiscent of traditional tactics in Philippine elections, writes Filipino-American Oscar Quiambao in this piece. There have been concerns about Republican efforts to delay the vote counts and intimidate voters. And let’s not forget that Trump himself offered $5,000 to every American if Republicans win.
- There are four ways foreign policy could change if Democrats win this week.
This also marks the first elections in the US where voters have been relying on chatbots to guide them. It’s a cautionary tale.
- A study showed almost 40% of chatbots’ replies to election-related queries contained at least one factual error. Read more.
- The flood of AI-driven disinformation has been unprecedented, according to this story, which cites one instance when the Democrat running for US Senate in Texas (a Republican base), James Talarico, had to take time off from campaigning due to flu. A fake video about him supposedly being treated at a mental health facility in Ohio went viral.
- Russia is apparently fueling fake reports about Democrats, according to an intelligence briefing that US lawmakers received. Read more.
- Outside the US, in Brazil, AI content bypassed election rules — a lesson for the Philippines, writes Alex Culla in this story.
As Trump spent the past days doing his final push for a Republican win, his defense chief Pete Hegseth flew to Cebu for the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting. There, the host, Philippine Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro, snubbed the Chinese defense attaché who ranked lower than him. Bea Cupin gives us a recap of the meeting in this report.
On another note, we extend our deepest condolences to the family of Philip Juico, who died on October 31 after years of battling cancer.
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