In brief: Forestalling an even worse humanitarian disaster in Oleshky was a very complex operation. Here is a detailed look at the role of the International Human Rights Commission in the operation, which can serve as template for future limited ceasefires.
On Oct. 31, 2026, residents of the occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky crossed into government-controlled Ukraine at the Nova Huta checkpoint, after a journey through Crimea, Anapa and Gomel. Many actors made this possible. What follows is a look at the part played by the International Human Rights Commission (IHRC): what we did, what we calculated, and what we propose for the operations that will follow.
A town one kilometer from home
Oleshky lies on the left bank of the Dnipro, directly opposite Kherson. For months, little more than a kilometer of water separated its residents from Ukrainian-controlled territory, yet that distance could not be crossed. Regular deliveries of food, medicine and drinking water stopped in spring 2026. Roads were mined and exposed to drones. Estimates of the remaining population ranged from 2,000 to over 6,000, including the elderly, the bedridden and at least 47 children known to us. For Ukrainians, who live with the legacy of the Holodomor, hunger used as a weapon is never just a humanitarian term.
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Ringing the bell
The IHRC was among the first international organizations to put forward a concrete plan for Oleshky.
The work combined the institutional reach of the IHRC with the operational experience of one of the authors, who spent 15 years in the UN system.
On Sept. 25, the IHRC proposed the Urgent Consolidated Humanitarian Assistance Programme (UCHAP): a single operation under the UN Humanitarian Coordinator and OCHA. On Oct. 6, Notes Verbales went to the Executive Office of the UN Secretary-General, OCHA and the Director General of IOM (International Organization for Migration); on Oct. 7, to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, both of whom assessed the initiative positively; on Oct. 9, a letter went to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. Each step was accompanied by operational plans and budgets.
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Washington
Through its headquarters in Washington, DC, the IHRC used several channels to bring the situation in Oleshky to the attention of American legislators, diplomats and the Office of the First Lady of the United States. We deliberately focused on the children, knowing that the fate of children affected by war is a personal priority for Mrs. Melania Trump. Her mediation ultimately made the ceasefire of Oct. 23possible.
The Holy See
At the initiative of the IHRC Secretary General, the matter was raised with the leadership of the Catholic Church in Poland and reached the Holy See. Ambassador Zbigniew Gretka, IHRC Representative for Relations with the Holy See, serving as Director of Diplomatic Relations and Religious Affairs Across All Continents, played a key role in this communication.
On Oct. 16, Pope Leo XIV, in a telephone conversation with the President of the Russian Federation, expressed deep concern about Oleshky and called for a humanitarian pause.
On Oct. 20, the IHRC transmitted to Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Secretary of State of His Holiness, a Note Verbale with analytical information on the likely number of people wishing to leave, the logistics of an evacuation, and concrete proposals.
A scientific foundation
A humanitarian operation does not begin with buses; it begins with data. Together with scholars of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, we estimated the sex and age structure of the remaining population and, on that basis, the share of people requiring special transport: about 15%. The first day of the residents’ survey produced 479 people wishing to leave, including 32 children, 12 bedridden and 68 persons with limited mobility, or about 17%.
Routes were modelled in the MapInfo and ArcView geographic information systems, with travel time for a bedridden patient as the main criterion. A bilingual questionnaire (Ukrainian and Russian) on residents’ intentions, built on neutral wording, minimal personal data and respondent safety, was agreed with members of the Presidium of the Academy and transmitted to the Ombudsman’s Office.
Three routes, calculated in full
On the eve of the operation, the IHRC transmitted to the Office of the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights an operational plan with full calculations for three options, for about 1,000 evacuees, 120-150 of them requiring special transport:
The Dnipro crossing, with ferries carrying ambulances so that patients would not be transferred between vehicles, preceded by trawling of the fairway and a boom barrier upstream, was the shortest, cheapest and gentlest option for the sick. Through the IHRC office in Vilnius, Médecins Sans Frontières and TAOS in Lithuania held buses and emergency medical teams on standby.
The parties, with the mediation of the United States, chose a fourth route: by bus through Crimea to Anapa, by four flights to Gomel, and by bus across the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, about a day and a half for each evacuee. It had a decisive advantage: no one crossed the front line or passed through Ukrainian positions. In humanitarian operations, the route is set by those who can guarantee security along its entire length. We accept that, and the water corridor remains a reserve.
Results and lessons
The operation succeeded: people are alive and at home. Credit belongs above all to Mrs. Melania Trump, to Pope Leo XIV, and to the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, and his Office, who negotiated for months and accompanied the evacuees all the way to the border.
Two deminers lost their lives clearing the road for others. We remember them.
The agreement envisages further evacuations. Drawing on Oleshky, the IHRC proposes:
The IHRC, together with the Institute for System Statistical Studies and scholars of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, stands ready to provide this expertise for the next operation. Oleshky has shown that humanitarian diplomacy can work even in war. The task now is to make it work faster, more predictably and for everyone who is still waiting.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Rafał Marcin Wasik is Secretary General of the International Human Rights Commission (IHRC, Washington, DC) and Honorary Professor of the State Institution “Institute of Market and Economic and Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine” (Odesa).
Igor G. Mantsurov is a Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor; Director of the Institute for System Statistical Studies (ISSS); and IHRC Ambassador-at-Large to the United Nations.
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