Political analyst Yolokazi Mfuto says Johannesburg, eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal and Buffalo City in the Eastern Cape are expected to be among the major battlegrounds in the 2026 Local Government Elections.
Mfuto believes Johannesburg is particularly unpredictable, with no single political party likely to secure an outright majority of 50% plus one.
This could pave the way for another coalition government in the City of Johannesburg.
Mfuto says, “Since 2016, we’ve had our participation dipping, but at least for these particular elections, we’ve seen an increase, and now we are on 29.2 million registered voters. Hopefully, today we hit 1.3 million. So, I do think that the turnout is going to be slightly higher.
Buffalo City has been an African National Congress (ANC) stronghold ever since the first Local Government Elections in 1995. However, Mfuto anticipates a potential shift in the political landscape, with the United Democratic Movement, led by Bantu Holomisa, poised to make a strong showing.
“Now, with the contestation, particularly in the metros – we’ll speak about the metros for now because they’re highly contested. Maybe let’s start in the Eastern Cape. We’ve seen Buffalo City, which has been an ANC stronghold for many years. But the campaign we’ve seen from the UDM (United Democratic Movement), I mean, has intensified, particularly in Buffalo City. Member of Parliament Nqabayomzi Kwankwa is contesting to become mayor there,” she explains.