James Talarico just accomplished what no other Democrat in Texas has done in three decades: winning a statewide race.
Talarico cruised to victory against Ken Paxton, with the Associated Press calling the race late Tuesday. The outcome ends what had become one of the longest winning streaks in U.S. politics. Talarico is the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas since 1994. He is also the first Democrat to be elected Senator by Texans since 1988.
Most polling heading into Election Day showed Talarico, a state legislator and seminarian, running ahead of Paxton, the scandal-plagued state Attorney General who has faced criminal inquiries and narrowly dodged an impeachment conviction by his fellow Republicans in Austin. Both in Texas and around the country, interest in the race was sky high. More than 7.7 million votes were cast ahead of Election Day
For many Texas Democrats, Talarico’s win is vindication in a longheld belief that demographics in that state were destiny. Democrats have argued for years that Texas wasn’t as Republican as election results suggested, but rather a state with so many non-voters that a Democrat could win with the right candidate and message. This cycle proved them correct, as early vote numbers matched the numbers during 2024’s presidential election and ran well ahead of the 5.1 million who voted early in 2022.
But Talarico certainly played a central piece in this history-making moment. A plain-spoken former Teach For America alumnus, his message was a blend of progressive optimism and faith-tinged evangelizing. Talarico worked to build an unlikely coalition that included plenty of folks who had been reliably Republican votes in the recent past. As clips of his speeches and interviews went viral he quickly became a political star with a national following, one who also became one of the cycle’s best fundraisers.
Read more: How James Talarico Made Texas Competitive Again
Both Paxton and Talarico fought for their party’s nominations in expensive primaries. The price tag for just ads in the race approached three-quarters-of-a-billion dollars. Outside spending brought $534 million in advertising, with Paxton enjoying a roughly 2-to-1 advantage. The bulk of that came courtesy of Elon Musk, the world’s richest person and a Texas resident. The ally of Trump flooded the state with $224 million of support for Paxton. The eye-popping outlay proved for naught.
Republicans never quite figured out how to campaign against Talarico. Trump gave him the nickname “Talafreako”—which Talarico’s campaign embraced and turned into campaign merch. The persistent rumor that he was a vegan in meat-loving Texas ricocheted in the MAGAverse but photos of Talarico eating barbecue quickly dispelled that. In the race’s final days, no less than Vice President J.D. Vance offered a crude joke that Talarico is gay. (He is not.)
While Talarico sought to expand Democrats’ tent, Paxton seemed to focus almost entirely on turning out his base with the help of Trump, who broke with party leaders in Texas and Washington and endorsed Paxton over incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
Republican strategists insisted that Cornyn would be in a far stronger position to hold the seat, particularly among fears of a blue-wave midterms. There were also concerns that Paxton would have trouble fundraising enough to match Talarico.
As one GOP strategist bemoaned, every dollar spent holding the seat in Texas was a dollar that was not being used to flip seats in Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, or Georgia. Some estimates pegged a GOP rescue mission at $250 million. Even that whopping figure under-estimated the ultimate cost in a state bigger than most countries in size and population.
Trump at first refused to endorse either Cornyn or Paxton in the race. Once the primary went to a May runoff, he formally backed Paxton, all but ending Cornyn’s political career. So worried were Republicans about holding the Texas seat that they scheduled the highly unusual midterm political convention in the state to try to gas their base.
Even after endorsing Paxton, Trump’s support for the nominee was uneven. In speeches, he would waver between championing Paxton and making digs at his likeability and appearance.
Paxton struggled with a clear message in the race. His tenure as the state’s Attorney General—once seen as a strength among a base that loved his fights against Democratic Administrations—became a liability as his accumulation of wealth during his years in public office drew allegations of cronyism. And he refused to debate Talarico, who pushed for such an event, even offering to let Fox News moderate it.