The story: Iranian officials are warning that renewed war with Israel and the US could trigger retaliation far beyond the region. This comes as suspected Israeli strikes on Iran-aligned Shiite armed groups in Iraq and Tel Aviv’s military preparations fuel fears of escalation. With Qatari mediators reportedly in Tehran and reports of Israeli-US plans to strike again after the US midterm elections, diplomacy and preparations for renewed fighting are running side by side.

The coverage: Iranian officials have issued increasingly expansive warnings in recent days about the consequences of a return to all-out war.

  • With lawmakers convening in person for the first time since the war began on Feb. 28, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Oct. 25 that Iran would answer any violation of its territorial integrity with a response “beyond the enemy's imagination.”

  • On Oct. 24, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, posted a map of key Israeli infrastructure, including desalination and power plants, on Twitter/X. He warned that Iran would render Israel “uninhabitable in under an hour” if attacked.

  • Hardline MP Alireza Salimi asserted that Iran’s response would “not be limited to the region,” adding that US interests “anywhere in the world will be considered legitimate targets in our view.”


Recent incidents in Iran and Iraq have fueled speculation that the initial blows as part of a renewed confrontation may already be underway.

  • Iraqi sources reportedly suspect Israel of striking two Chinese-made air-defense systems on Oct. 17, allegedly supplied by Iran to Shiite armed groups. Media reports also say explosions around Baghdad on Oct. 1 targeted warehouses storing the groups’ drones.

  • Dozens of Israeli fighter jets reportedly flew through Iraqi and Syrian airspace toward Iran's border on Oct. 19 before turning back.

  • Large explosions were reported in Iran's northwestern city of Tabriz, in East Azerbaijan Province, on Oct. 25, with images purportedly showing plumes of black smoke. State media later attributed the blasts to the controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance.

Diplomatic efforts to prevent the return of all-out war are continuing in parallel.

  • Iran's ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, said on Oct. 24 that Tehran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted its naval blockade. The purported offer came during Pakistani Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir’s trip to Tehran on Oct. 20. The envoy accused US President Donald Trump of rejecting it and undermining diplomacy.

  • Qatari mediators reportedly traveled to Tehran on Oct. 25 as part of a claimed US-coordinated effort to reduce regional tensions. Neither Doha nor Tehran had commented at the time of writing.

The context/analysis: The latest threats come as Israel and the US are reportedly weighing renewed military action.

  • Citing US sources, Axios reported that Washington read Israel’s Oct. 19 aerial mission as an attempt to provoke Iran into firing at the aircraft to justify an attack on Iranian territory.

  • The report came a week before Israel's Oct. 27 election, amid discussions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about a possible new operation against Iran.

  • Hardline MP Mahmoud Nabavian demanded on Oct. 23 that Baghdad explain why Israeli aircraft were “practicing and preparing to attack Iran” in Iraqi skies. If no action were taken, he warned, “The Iraqi people, Iraqi resistance groups and the Iranian people will fulfil their duty.”

The US midterm elections on Nov. 3 may also shape the timing of renewed fighting.

  • ABC News reported on Oct. 22 that the Israeli and US militaries had drawn up plans for renewed joint strikes in the following weeks, with Israeli sources expecting action after the respective votes. One Israeli source told ABC News, “Hunting season is open as soon as the elections end and it's obvious that they're not going to wait long.”

  • White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Washington would not attack Iran before the midterms, while the Trump administration maintains that the president is keeping all options open.

In Iran, the conservative daily Jomhuri-e Eslami has alleged that a “long-running plan” is underway to remove current and former officials and install a figure who would preserve the Islamic Republic's outward appearance while stripping it of its substance.

  • In a report published on Oct. 20, the newspaper said an unnamed individual had been “kept in reserve for a long time” to complete the plan. It pointed to political maneuvering, the removal and assassination of senior officials and a renewed online propaganda campaign.

  • Jomhuri-e Eslami did not name the individual, but its references to Iran’s disputed 2009 presidential elections and his criticism of political figures appear to point to populist former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–13).

  • The outlet’s allegations echo reports in western media in July of an alleged Israeli intelligence effort to cultivate Ahmadinejad as a post-regime-change leader. Ahmadinejad's office denied the report, and the alleged plan has not been independently verified. Netanyahu reiterated on Oct. 22 that an Israeli-US attack must overthrow the Islamic Republic.

The future: The immediate question is whether mediation can bridge the gap between Tehran and Washington.

  • If diplomacy fails, Tehran's warnings suggest it intends to carry the costs of renewed attacks beyond its borders, potentially drawing in regional armed groups and energy markets.

  • Iraq looks set to be an early pressure point. Suspected strikes on Iran-aligned groups there and Israeli flights through Iraqi airspace have already prompted Iranian demands that Baghdad act, raising the risk that Iraqi armed groups are pulled into any new round of fighting.

  • The coming weeks, particularly the period after the US midterms, will test whether the current pause can produce a negotiated arrangement or merely precedes another round of strikes and retaliation.