The story: Iran and the US are pursuing diplomacy to avert war amid warnings from Tehran that a new attack would draw a response beyond the region. In parallel, Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), has set out the Islamic Republic’s vision for regional security, its nuclear doctrine and view of US proposals. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within two days if Iran’s conditions are met, indicating that measures related to the country’s nuclear program will only be taken in a “second phase.”

This comes as Qatar is stepping up its efforts to facilitate dialogue. Doha sent a senior delegation to a day-trip to Tehran on Oct. 30. Speaking to Amwaj.media, a senior Iranian political source confirmed that Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi had traveled to Qatar the following day and returned to Iran late on Nov. 1.

The coverage: In a wide-ranging interview on state television on Oct. 31, Rezaee outlined a new regional security framework involving Iran and other major regional powers, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye.

  • Referring to the four nations’ Oct. 26 meeting in Tehran, the SNSC secretary said the talks had focused on security arrangements independent of outside powers.

  • Rezaee said he found the other nations’ visions for the region “interesting,” adding that in their positions on Israel they had become “more Hezbollahi [zealous] than many of our friends.”

  • Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman Al Saud had told him that after Iran, Israel would go after Turkiye and then Saudi Arabia, Rezaee said, a view he indicated that Turkiye’s visiting spy chief shared.

In the Oct. 31 interview, Rezaee also confirmed receiving a letter from US Vice President JD Vance, saying he had read it but had not yet responded.

  • “The tone of the letter has completely changed and is different from [US President Donald] Trump’s previous letter,” Rezaee said, calling the shift a sign that the Iranian nation had consolidated its victory and authority.

  • Rezaee said Washington had submitted three successive proposals, each better than the last. The first was unacceptable, the second raised suspicions that Washington planned to attack Iran after the US congressional elections, and the third still contained ambiguities.

  • Iran is still reviewing Vance’s proposal, the security chief said. “We told them that we have no negotiations with you,” he added, saying the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until Iran’s conditions are met.

Araghchi, meanwhile, has outlined a revised plan to reopen the maritime chokepoint, replacing an earlier seven-day and then five-day timeline with a two-day one following proposals from Qatar.

  • Speaking to Qatari-funded Al-Jazeera on Oct. 31, the foreign minister described a sequence of reciprocal steps. The United States would take a series of measures on the first day, and on the second, the strait would reopen to normal traffic. Notably, he also suggested that shipping should resume through new routes agreed with Oman.

  • “Our conditions include lifting the sanctions imposed following the [June 2026] Islamabad memorandum and reducing US forces in the region,” Araghchi elaborated, adding, “We demand the restoration of oil waivers and the release of all our frozen funds, including those held in Qatar.”

  • Importantly, Araghchi clarified that “mediators have presented proposals concerning the nuclear dossier, which we are currently reviewing as part of the second phase.” This indicates that nuclear-related measures will not be taken prior to the reopening of traffic through Hormuz.

Hours before the Oct. 31 interview, the office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a statement about his meeting with senior military commanders.

  • Khamenei described “smart combat readiness to forcefully confront adversaries” as a prerequisite for “maximum deterrence,” the statement said. Any threat, whatever its scale or nature, must meet “an immediate and effective response unrestricted by geographic boundaries,” he added.

  • Building on those remarks, Mohammad Mokhber, a senior advisor to former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wrote on Twitter/X on Nov. 1 that Iran’s “defensive doctrine is rapidly evolving” and that “the redefined scope of deterrence now extends beyond regional boundaries.”

Separately, Iran on Nov. 1 designated the UK Royal Navy and Royal Air Force as “terrorist organizations” and the MI6 intelligence service a “hostile group.”

  • Tehran cited Britain’s support for Israel and the United States in the war on Iran and its listing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under British state threats legislation in July.

  • Prominent conservative commentator Ali Gholhaki speculated on Oct. 31 that by no longer limiting its targets to the region, Iran was sending Europe a message.

In his Oct. 31 interview, Rezaee also addressed growing calls inside Iran to reassess the country’s nuclear doctrine after Israeli and US attacks on its nuclear facilities.

  • Rezaee acknowledged that public pressure for change was growing. “There is a public demand for a shift in the nuclear doctrine,” he said, adding that Iranians were asking why the country should keep its approach when its nuclear facilities had been bombed despite its declared peaceful activities.

  • The SNSC secretary stressed, however, that no official decision had been made and that the council had held no meetings to change the doctrine. “So far, no new decision has been made by the [political] establishment,” he said.

Officials and commentators have been debating for months whether Iran should withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and acquire atomic bombs. On Oct. 31, outlets across the political spectrum weighed in.

  • IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency argued for leaving the NPT. It cited past claims that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had passed information on assassinated nuclear scientists to enemy intelligence services.

  • Conservative news website Nour News, close to the late former SNSC secretary Ali Shamkhani, acknowledged the growing public calls but cautioned that turning them into policy is a “political and strategic decision” requiring expert assessment.

  • Reformist daily Hammihan questioned whether nuclear weapons are a widespread demand, pointing to a fatwa by the late former supreme leader banning weapons of mass destruction.

The context/analysis: Araghchi’s two-day plan comes days after Iran reportedly told the Mecca Defense Pact nations—Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye—that it would shorten its original seven-day timeline if that would persuade the United States to accept its proposal.

  • According to Ali Baqeri-Kani, deputy for foreign policy and international security at the SNSC secretariat, Rezaee told the visiting delegations that Iran could accept five or even four days instead of seven. Araghchi has now cut that to two.

  • Iran’s proposal has seven conditions, only some of which have been made public. These include lifting new US sanctions, ending the naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian assets and restoring Iran’s ability to export oil.


Iranian officials are increasingly warning that any renewed confrontation with Israel and the United States could have consequences far beyond West Asia.

  • The Qatari mediation is unfolding alongside claims of Israeli-US plans for fresh strikes after the US congressional midterm elections on Nov. 3.

The debate on nuclear weapons in Iran has also officially moved into the mainstream. Advocacy for atomic arms was long a political taboo under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had issued a religious edict prohibiting them.

  • Signs of a possible shift emerged as early as 2024, when Iranian officials suggested that Tehran could reconsider its self-imposed ban on nuclear weapons if the country faced an existential threat.

  • Discussion of a nuclear deterrent gained momentum toward the end of the former supreme leader’s rule, particularly after Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.

  • Ali Khamenei’s death in an Israeli strike on his Tehran compound in late February marked a turning point in the debate. Now even some Friday prayer leaders are using their platform to push for a change in Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

The future: Diplomacy and military preparation are running in parallel, with no clear sign of which will prevail. Tehran’s answer to the latest US proposal, and Washington’s response to the two-day plan, may show whether talks can head off renewed Israeli-US strikes.

  • The United States has reportedly moved military cargo and aerial refueling planes to Israel and warned its allies in the region that a “short, intense military campaign” against Iran is possible after the midterms.

  • When attacked earlier this year, Iran lashed out by striking civilian and military sites in Gulf Arab states and Israel, saying it was targeting US interests.

  • Iran’s threat now is that renewed conflict would see it expand its targets beyond the region, though what that would entail remains unclear. In addition, top Iranian officials have said that new weapons will be unveiled, leaving ambiguity about what type of capabilities may be deployed.